By year three
of Iraq's occupation, for most western citizens the fact that
they live in a world subjugated by lies, half-truths and suppressed
facts has become part of everyday life. In Iraq, a preoccupation
for many of the country's citizens, including some who initially
supported the war, is whether their country will survive or whether
the result of western recolonisation will soon be disintegration.
A Hobbesian landscape today could lead to a tripartite division
In the last
half of the preceding century, the great Iraqi poet, Muhammad
Mahdi al-Jawahiri, himself the son of a Shia cleric and born in
the holy city of Najaf, could express his detachment from religious
sectarianism and affirm his faith in an Iraqi nationalism: ana
al-Iraqu, lisani qalbuhu, wa dami furatuhu, wa kiyani minhu ashtaru
(I am Iraq, her heart is my tongue, my blood her Euphrates,
my very being from her branches formed). It seems a very long
ahead? The US occupation is heavily dependent on the de facto
support of the Shia political parties, especially Sciri (the Supreme
Council for the Revolution in Iraq), Tehran's instrument in Iraq.
Ayatollah Sistani, who, soon after the fall of Baghdad, told Iraqis
of every hue that he favoured an independent and united Iraq,
may have meant it at the time, but events have moved on.
Kurds dominate the puppet army
and police; they have determined the
ultra-federal character of the
constitution and make no secret of the
fact that they favour an ethnic cleansing
of Arabs and other non-Kurds in Kirkuk,
including those born in the city.
Oppressed minorities in one epoch
can rapidly become oppressors in
another as Israel continues to
demonstrate to the world.
prevented Shia groups from waging their own struggle and persuaded
Moqtada al-Sadr to cease resistance, he also dented the unity
of the country. A unified resistance fighting on two fronts could
have led to a unified government later. Unsurprisingly, Thomas
Friedman, of the New York Times, has demanded that Sistani be
awarded the Nobel peace prize.
Had the Shia
parties decided to resist the occupation, it would have been over
a long time ago, if indeed it had taken place at all. The clerics
in power in Iran made clear to Washington that they would not
oppose the overthrow of the Taliban or of Saddam Hussein. They
did so for their own motives and in their own interests, but theirs
was a dangerous game. Had the Ba'athists and military nationalists
not resisted, instead denying Bush and Blair the glory of which
they dreamed and creating a crisis of confidence in Washington
and London, regime change in Tehran might have remained on the
agenda, despite Iranian support for the US.
enough, it is the resistance in Iraq that has made any such adventure
impossible in the medium term. The US army high command, overstretched
in Iraq, is seriously divided on the war and there is little doubt
that some senior figures in the Pentagon favour a rapid withdrawal
for purely military reasons. Could the empire, stalemated militarily,
pull off a political triumph? A break-up of Iraq, which besides
its cousin Syria was the only state resisting US domination, would
mean a victory of sorts. There should be no doubt on this score.
the oil? The model being prepared
at the moment will cost Iraq billions
in lost revenues while global
corporations reap the harvest.
The contracts being prepared would
provide them with returns of
42 per cent to 162 per cent in an
industry where the minimum returns
are in the region of 12 per cent.
Iraqi group that has benefited the most from the occupation is
the Kurdish tribal leadership. The Kurds received a great deal
of funding for 12 years prior to the war, and US intelligence
agencies utilised the region as a base to penetrate the rest of
the country. The Kurds dominate the puppet army and police; they
have determined the ultra-federal character of the constitution
and make no secret of the fact that they favour an ethnic cleansing
of Arabs and other non-Kurds in Kirkuk, including those born in
the city. Oppressed minorities in one epoch can rapidly become
oppressors in another as Israel continues to demonstrate to the
world. The Kurdish leaders, with Kirkuk in their bag, are happy
to become a western protectorate.
the clerically enforced unity of the Shia groups collapses, and
it could if denied the luxury of American troops and air support,
a new deal might be possible to prevent the Balkanisation of Iraq.
The same could happen if Tehran decides that a genuinely independent
Iraq is in the best interests of the region, but rational calculation
has not always been the mullahs' strongest suite. A happy ending
is not in sight.
the oil? The model being prepared at the moment will cost Iraq
billions in lost revenues while global corporations reap the harvest.
The contracts being prepared would provide them with returns of
42 per cent to 162 per cent in an industry where the minimum returns
are in the region of 12 per cent. While the oil will remain the
legal property of the state, the production-sharing agreements
(PSAs) will give the concessions to private companies. This too
would be seen as a victory by Halliburton and its political patrons.
As long as an Iraqi government backs the PSAs, the US and Britain
could withdraw their troops and claim a victory. The triumph of
freedom would be reflected in the oil agreement. After all, little
else counts. But could such a deal be maintained indefinitely
without the presence of imperial troops? Unlikely. Oil has, in
the past, revitalised nationalist movements and transformed politics
in Iran and Iraq. Times are different today, but the basic problems
remain, and the struggle for the oil could be a protracted one.
Tariq Ali's latest book is Rough
Music: Blair, Bombs, Baghdad, Terror, London (Verso).
He is also the author of the recently published Street Fighting
Years (new edition) and, with David Barsamian,Speaking of
Empires & Resistance. He can be reached at
here to order Tariq Ali books.
Other articles by Tariq Ali:
A Despised Leader Suffers His First Loss
Pakistan Will Never Forget This Horror
The Logic Of Colonial Rule
A Viler Barbarism
The Price Of Occupation
The New Ultra-Imperialism Of The World
"They Think God Runs The IMF"
Imperial Delusions: "Domocracy Promotion" And Resistance
The New Model Of Imperialism: Saddam On Parade
The Importance Of Hugo Chavez: Why He Crushed The Oligarchs
Getting Away With Murder
The War Is Not Going Well For Bush